Read First, Then Opinionate: McChrystal

I know it's old news, McChrystal's gone, Petraeus is in now, yada yada yada. But did you read the article in Rolling Stone? Did you really? Here's a link--go read it if you haven't. Yes, it's 6 pages long, go take your Adderall or your Provigil and read it for pete's sake.

Now, think of this situation in terms of your own work. I think that is the best way to consider it, since at bottom, it really is a Human Resources/work/management issue. How much joking at the expense of management is going on? How much open disagreement? How much of either would you tolerate if it was you in charge? If you didn't get rid of someone, what would you do instead? Those are the considerations that President Obama had to undertake.

Now, of course it wasn't that simple. Other people reported, then offered opinions and advice. What was written by the Rolling Stone reporter was quoted to support one view or another, often out of context. What McChrystal said was often confabulated with statements made by his staff members. The whole thing rapidly became bigger then it really was. That is why you have to read the original article--to see the quotes and issues in context.

Now, Mr/Ms. CEO, what do you do with this really smart employee, this manager with documented successes, but an occasionally difficult personality and with more difficult personalities lurking on his staff, who has some differences with others in the company about strategies? That's the question that you have to ask. How much of this sort of orneriness do you want and/or tolerate among your people?

Here's my answer: If this had stayed in-house or if publicized, had not blown up way bigger than actual size, I might just ask the general to keep a better track on his staff, keep his own doubts private in the chain of communication, and ask what I could do better to help him in his work. With it blowing up the way it did, even though at bottom it was not that big a deal, it became a big deal. When it became this big deal, it began to create uncertainties about the top leadership. In that case, which is what happened in reality, I would reluctantly accept his resignation. When I did, I would take time to talk about what a great leader he was and how much success he created--that he has been and hopefully will be continue to be an asset to the country.

In all of this, we missed something of an opportunity--the opportunity to revisit our entire strategy in Afghanistan and consider whether or not we should be there at all. This could still happen as a change in leadership is always an opportunity for assessment.

PS: I did not forget about the Constitutional issues. The founding fathers placed civilian control over the military, for better or for worse. This is the frame we work under, and this is the frame I answered the question in. The President is the Commander and Chief. He is the CEO. The military is a division that while working quite independently at times, still in the end, reports to the POTUS. Together they work on plans and strategy and work out their differences. Together.

Afghanistan and the Riches

When at first this came via Email alert to my BlackBerry I thought, "Why the big deal?" Here's what I saw around about 2030 Sunday:

WASHINGTON — The United States has discovered nearly $1 trillion in untapped
mineral deposits in Afghanistan, far beyond any previously known reserves and enough to fundamentally alter the Afghan economy and perhaps the Afghan war itself, according to senior American government officials.

The previously unknown deposits — including huge veins of iron, copper, cobalt, gold
and critical industrial metals like lithium — are so big and include so many minerals that are essential to modern industry that Afghanistan could eventually be transformed into one of the most important mining centers in the world, the United States officials believe.

I stopped in my thoughts. This country, Afghanistan, was long thought to have missed out on the natural resources train. It was thought that other than being a way between larger and more blessed lands, and having some piss poor soil, only suitable for growing crops of addiction, Afghanistan had little to offer. Its main resource, people, were stuck in a repressive, eighth century land, with little in the way of infrastructure. Now, Afghanis find themselves sitting on a motherlode of materials that could make the country prosperous beyond their wildest dreams.

Natural resources have caused struggles. Not just with guns either. Oil caused several financial and corruption crises in the United States. Countries struggle with the riches of natural resources being monopolized by the few. Some just end up with a rich monarchy, like Saudi Arabia. Some end up with anarchy, like Nigeria. Probably of all countries, the U.S. has done as well as anyone to try and spread the wealth, but even here, there is inequality in how the riches are divided.

There are also, of course, implications for U.S. policy. We certainly want access to these materials for our own economy, either in their import or in the employment of our companies, people and expertise to extract them from the earth. I personally would like mining tech savvy companies with an environmental consciousness to be the ones presiding over the extraction of the material. Frankly, I don't want the "grip and rip it" Chinese mining mentality anywhere near this area. The Chinese have a dismal environmental record and a horrible labor record. They can stay home and pollute their own country and exploit their own people.

Our military is scheduled to start withdrawl in July 2011 from Afghanistan. The surge has struggled in this country. If the central government weakness and unrest continues, the kind of unrest that left the Russians findings of this material lay fallow for 30 years, it may lie fallow for 30 more. Or the cost of mining may include the cost of blood spilled, as it often does in chaotic countries with natural resources.

The ideal would be that Afghanis wake up, quit fighting us and each other, realize that a stable secular central government with representatives elected by everyone--a representative republic!--is the best hope for everyone benefiting from the blessings that God has given to the country. Such a form of governance would allow free enterprise to take the lead in mining and refining these important minerals. It won't be perfect, but this has worked better then a lot of other types of government.

Well, a person can dream....

Link to the full New York Times article here.

Obama and Afghanistan

I actually have a fundamental problem with our war in Afghanistan. I don't think we should be trying to do in Afghanistan what we have done in Iraq. Iraq, while it has its own divisive history, is a place that has been governed centrally, and is more modern. Afghanistan is a geographically isolated, 19th century place. With the exception of Kabul, Afghanistan is not modern at all. Iraq has interesting natural resources. Afghanistan, as far as I know, has little in the way of natural resources. Furthermore, while Iraq has three tribal groups, Afghanistan has five or more. We cannot occupy Afghanistan. Physically, it is impossible. You would need literally millions of troops to even try. I would like to see a very limited mission to Afghanistan, concentrated on the mountains where Al Qaeda leaders are hiding, in cooperation with Pakistan. We will not try to train Afghan troops. We will not try to build a nation out of this mess of rocks, dirt and mud. We will get the people that got us, and still pose a threat to us, and then we will get out of Dodge. That's what I'd like to see.

What we are going to get is something that won't satisfy anyone. Can we find Osama Bin Ladin with this plan? Can we really train Afghans in a real way in the short time we've given ourselves? Can anything we might help some Afghans do stand up to the Taliban and Al Qaeda onslaught that is sure to come after we leave? I'm afraid that more blood and treasure will be spent in a useless way the longer we stay in Afghanistan without a very narrow and specific mission. Then we will leave without having accomplished much of anything.

Here is the money quote in the speech for me: as commander-in-chief, I have determined that it is in our vital national interest to send an additional 30,000 U.S. troops to Afghanistan. After 18 months, our troops will begin to come home.

We will surge. We will go home. Will we have any accomplishments for our efforts? I hope so, since there will be a price paid.

link: Fox provides a transcript of the speech.

To get more of a feel for Afghanistan the place, I highly recommend reading "The Places in Between" by Rory Stewart. He took a slightly insane walk across that country in 2002 and this book, published in 2006 recounts his journey. It gives the 21st century western reader a little bit of an idea what Afghanistan is like. Here is the New York Times review.

Some Follow up and a Few Good Links

The health care forum at the Church of the Resurrection was very good. An excellent primer on the problems, and glimpses of some ideas for solutions. Tomorrow they will have transcripted the proceedings and you will be able to buy a DVD of the program. If you have an interest in health care reform and would like to increase your basic knowledge of the issue, it is definitely worth pursuing. On the Web: http://www.cor.org/.

Following up two items from last Thursday's post--note the flap about Michelle's shorts has disappeared without a trace. (I had to be careful how I said that: it wasn't the First Lady's shorts that disappeared...) The South African runner, Caster Semenya, the tests on her gender are not back yet. She has received a hero's welcome in her country, and is enjoying her gold medal. We'll keep following. The Afghani elections proceeded but there were reports of fraud, violence and intimidation. There were reports of women who voted having their ink stained fingers cut off by the local Muslim clergy. Per reports, a preliminary result may be made public in a few days. The current president, Hamid Karzai and his challenger, Abdullah Abdullah are neck and neck per new stories. Pray for Afghanistan.

You may have heard of the humor web site http://www.icanhazcheezburger.com/ . Time magazine has an interesting article about its owner and the fact the site makes money. Amusingly, there's a link in the article that says that the site is overrated, and proof of the fall of western civilization. Sometimes the arrogance and judgemental attitude of the mainstream media is not to be believed. Your link to the Time article.

Oh, by the way, check out the site http://www.lovelylisting.com/ for hysterical real estate ads and pictures. The way some people decorate their homes! And they leave them that way when they go to sell the house. Sometimes the site is sad because you see what happens to houses (that were once homes) abandoned in foreclosure. But most times, it's funny. It's the newest part of the cheezburger empire.

Strange Survivalist/Christian (???) group in my family's small town in Vermont are in a kerfuffle with the town about a road and a gate. The link from WCAX TV. I didn't know exactly where this was, so I mapquested and googled, and found the road dead ends at what looks like a settlement (barns, houses, etc.). So I'm pretty positive the town fathers can figure this out. By the way, the James Jones interviewed in the video piece was in my high school class.

Thursday Afternoon Potpourri

I was going to post a nice picture of Michelle Obama getting off Air Force One in a nice pair of shorts, and discuss the minor kerfluffle that has come up about it, but the picture won't post, even though I talked really nicely to my computer. Oh, well, here's a link instead. As you can see she looks good--really. She's not a waif, she's a woman. Here's the discussion part: I have no problem with it in this context. She is on vacation. She isn't meeting anyone, or doing official business. I think some of the flap is from conservatives who will criticize anything the Obamas do. I think some of it is generational. Our generation (I am 10 months older than the president) is much less formal. We are more willing to dress down. If you want to see an example of the change, check out some of the older sports photos. Everyone is dressed up. You dressed up to see your sports team play. Now, you might dress up, but certainly not in a coat and tie!

Elections are taking place in Afghanistan today and so far, there has been minor violence and per msnbc 26 deaths but not the chaos the Taliban were threatening. The people there are very discouraged by the results of their last election, and have been threatened, so it will be interesting to see the turnout. So far, the turnout is reported to be "millions". The area is so riven by centuries old conflicts and has so many cultures within it, and is so backwards--I mean stuck in the 18th and 19th centuries when I say this--that it is just about impossible to centrally govern. Pray for the people of Afghanistan, that they will find their way out of the darkness of unmerciful, un-graceful Islam.

A young woman by the name of Castor Semenya from the Republic of South Africa has won the 800 meters race at the World Track and Field Championships. She'll receive her medal, but they are going to test her genetic gender. This takes a little while to process, she gets to keep her medal until a problem is demonstrated. Here's a link, so you can see her photo. To me, she looks like a female in the head and neck--no prominent Adam's Apple, feminine facial features--and like a guy in the body. She doesn't appear to have external genitalia of a man (can't hide much while wearing those tight track shorts). This is more complicated than it looks: She could be female and 1) doping--injecting testosterone 2) have abnormal hormone levels naturally. She could be male and have been born with weird abnormal genitals, and the doctors cut them off, and her family raised her female. So we'll follow along with you, and await the results.

I am planning an entry on what cars people may be collecting in the future. I was thinking of it when cash for clunkers started. Oh, it just hurts my car loving soul that engines are being deliberately destroyed by this program. I wince every time I think about it. So, reader, any cars of the past 20-30 years you can think of that could generate enough passion that folks would collect them?

Future classic?